Ryanair threatens further cuts – How at risk is Mallorca?

Ryanair warns — and Mallorca listens: Is a new capacity gap looming?

On a windy Tuesday afternoon at Son Sant Joan airport the luggage trolleys clatter louder than usual. Under the departure deck regulars sit in the cafés, talk quietly and keep checking their smartphones. The cause of the stir: Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has once again threatened to reduce capacities in Spain — in response to a roughly 6.5 percent fee increase by operator AENA.

The key question

Will Mallorca become noticeably less accessible if low-cost carriers like Ryanair cut more seats? This is more than an economic question. It concerns weekend visitors, business travelers, seasonal workers, but also the cargo that has to arrive on time in hotel kitchens and supermarkets. And of course jobs in taxi companies, restaurants and the events sector.

What has happened so far — briefly explained

Ryanair has already cut several hundred thousand seats from its Spain network for 2025. On the island this shows up as fewer connections, tighter schedules and the expectation of rising prices in the shoulder seasons. AENA has reacted sharply, accusing Ryanair of distorted representations. In the airport corridors, however, you don't hear corporate debates but very tangible worries: tour guides with nervous smiles, hoteliers seeing fewer spontaneous weekend bookings on a Friday, and taxi drivers who already manage full parking lots during stormy weekends.

What is often overlooked in the public debate

1. Seasonality of demand: Mallorca's economy is highly dependent on irregular booking flows. A canceled connection in autumn hits small businesses harder than large hotel chains.

2. Interlinked supply chains: It's not only tourists who arrive by plane. Spare parts for machines, special foods for hotels and time-sensitive freight use the same connections. Less frequency increases the risk of supply bottlenecks.

3. Competition and market mechanics: Ryanair is signaling not only displeasure about fees but also testing its bargaining power. If a major carrier like Ryanair withdraws, there may be room for other providers — but whether they can step in quickly and cost-effectively is uncertain.

Concrete risks for Mallorca

Fewer seats mean higher ticket prices in the short term, less flexibility for last-minute travelers and possible shifts of flights to other Mediterranean airports that offer lower fees. Hoteliers in areas like Portixol already report noticeable drops in spontaneous bookings: 'When a connection is cut, we notice it at breakfast,' says a hotel manager.

What the island can do — practical proposals

The debate must not be left solely to Ryanair and AENA. Mallorca's political representatives, the airport and the tourism industry must now take three actions:

1. Negotiate and accompany: Consider short-term incentives for key routes — not as permanent subsidies, but as a bridge until other carriers are expanded. At the same time, fee structures should be made more transparent so operators and communities know what they are paying for.

2. Diversify providers: Actively approach other low-cost and scheduled airlines, support the launch of new routes and agree on seasonal frequencies to reduce dependence on a single carrier.

3. Manage demand: Make the shoulder seasons more attractive: conferences, sporting events, culinary festivals — anything that stabilizes bookings outside the high season. That would make the island less vulnerable to short-term capacity shifts.

A realistic outlook

The threats may also be bargaining chips. But to prevent the island from becoming a loser, coordinated steps are needed now. Talks must be conducted publicly so that solutions are found rather than just numbers being juggled. That means clearer communication from AENA, serious offers from the island's representatives and a plan B in case Ryanair actually relocates routes.

In the meantime, travelers should plan early, compare prices and consider alternatives — and the island administration must do more than listen in the airport cafés; it must act.