First Tourism Balance Summer 2025: A Breather Instead of a Record Rush?

More people, but flatter waves: the June balance

Over evening coffee on the Passeig Mallorca the numbers felt like a cold gust of wind: on 27 June 1,886,897 people were on the Balearic Islands at the same time — locals and visitors together. A year earlier the peak was 1,897,214. Almost 7,700 fewer people, at first glance a small deviation. But there is more beneath the surface.

What the bare figures hide

One little-noticed fact: the permanent population has grown. Between July 2024 and July 2025 there were around 12,501 new residents. Subtracting that, on the peak day there were almost 20,000 fewer tourists than in 2024. That is not a typo — it changes the interpretation: not only the total number, but the ratio of visitors to locals is shifting.

On the beach at Playa de Palma I heard yesterday the usual chatter, the clatter of sunbeds and the distant hum of mopeds. A hotelier summed it up soberly: “Rooms are not empty, but the peaks are flatter.” On Avinguda Joan Miró a taxi driver told me he notices more short stays and fewer large families. Such observations fit a pattern: fewer long-term bookings, more punctual demand.

Why this is more than number games

Planning public services, transport and supplies is guided by peak values. If these peaks smooth out, pressure in rush hours decreases — less congestion on the Ma-10, free parking spaces in the early evening, shorter queues in Palma's old town. But for businesses, more irregular demand means greater uncertainty: staff planning, inventory, pricing — everything becomes harder to calculate.

We should also consider two often overlooked effects: first, revenue profiles change. Shorter stays can mean less spending in local shops but more in quick services or platform-based economies. Second, pressure shifts: if day-trippers or cruise excursions do not fall at the same rate, some hotspots remain crowded while other neighborhoods breathe easier.

Is this a turning point?

June has usually increased in past years; 2025 remains stable or falls slightly for the first time. Whether this is a one-off dip — for example due to changed travel times or economic conditions — or the start of a trend is unclear. Many eyes are now on August, which traditionally marks the year's high point. If that peak is lower too, the signal would be clearer.

Concrete consequences and solutions for the island

So what to do? First: better monitoring. If local authorities receive differentiated data on duration, origin and type of stays more quickly, measures can be planned more precisely. Second: diversify offerings. More events in the low season, quality over quantity tourism and support for local providers would help stabilize revenues. Third: more flexible economic policies — from dynamic pricing for ferries and parking to short-term subsidies for small businesses in uncertain months.

Another opportunity lies in cooperation: municipalities, hoteliers, taxi drivers and landlords should run joint scenarios — not only to secure incomes, but to preserve quality of life for residents. If peak flows flatten, that can also be used for better infrastructure maintenance, cleaner beaches and more space in the old town. That is not automatic; it requires planning and the courage to trade short-term losses for long-term stability.

My impression — and an appeal

Personally it feels like a pause to catch one’s breath: fewer noisy crowds on a single day, a few free parking spaces in the early evening sun, the clinking of coffee cups on the Passeig without packed tables. Ironically: Mallorca breathes briefly while the island's economy anxiously counts its breaths. The most important question is not whether 2025 will be a record year, but how we use the calm — to change course, for smarter planning and more sustainable offers.

Conclusion: Mallorca remains in strong demand, but the traditional peaks of 2025 are less pronounced. That creates opportunities — for quality of life and a more sustainable economy — but also requires decisions from politics and the industry. August will show whether this is a short respite or whether the waves stay permanently flatter.