Halving — possible? A reality check of the GOB vision for Mallorca 2035

Halving — possible? A reality check of the GOB vision for Mallorca 2035

What lies behind the plan, and what consequences would the proposed cuts have?

On a mild November morning, when the first cafés on the Passeig des Born open and seafaring conversations drift over from the harbour, the idea initially sounds almost soothing: fewer crowds, more space, an island that breathes more slowly. A few weeks ago the environmental organisation GOB, together with the scientific cooperative Garúa, published a study that sees paid working hours in the tourism sector shrinking by 2035 to roughly half of the 2022 level — from 202,145,346 to around 104,157,479 working hours. Scenarios with shorter weekly working hours (35 and 30 hours) add further nuance to the picture.

Key question: Can Mallorca reduce the tourist workload that much within a decade without creating social upheaval? And if so, what would the roadmap look like?

Critical analysis

Numbers are hard: according to the underlying data there were about 110,341 jobs in the tourism sector in 2022. In the model with a 40-hour week only about 56,855 positions would remain by 2035 — a loss of more than 50,000 jobs. At the same time the study forecasts increases in care, food production and public services. For example, care hours rise from 183 million (2022) to over 212 million (2035).

The problem is the speed and the logic of transition. The construction and tourism sectors are not only large employers, they are tightly linked with suppliers, transport, trade and services. A sharp decline generates drops in demand whose social costs cannot be absorbed in the short term solely by slow growth in agriculture or recycling — at least not quickly enough.

What is missing from the public debate

Few topics are sufficiently thought through: funding for retraining; social safety nets for employees on seasonal contracts; concrete measures for water supply and land reform; legal changes to rental and property regimes that are closely tied to the tourism market. It also remains unclear how the desired increase in food production could realistically be achieved — land is limited, water scarcer, and many areas are privatized or used for tourism.

Everyday scenes as a test

Take a walk through the l'Olivar market at midday: vendors, cooks, delivery drivers — many earn their living directly from the tourist flow. If a quarter of that demand disappeared tomorrow, supply chains would come to a halt. Families who clean in beach hotels, bring their children to school and then work evenings in restaurants would feel the changes first. Without clear transition aids, disruptions threaten precisely in these neighbourhoods.

Concrete approaches

1. Phased plan: slow the pace, but make it controllable. Ten years is short; a staged transition with annual target corridors reduces shocks.

2. Retraining and social protection: funds for further training in agricultural technology, food processing, care professions and green production; transitional benefits instead of sudden unemployment.

3. Strengthen local value creation: targeted land-use policy, water-saving programmes, support for cooperatives and short supply chains so that more production actually remains local.

4. Working time reform as a tool: a gradual reduction of weekly hours can create jobs and distribute care work more fairly — but it only works if companies, the state and unions agree on clear arrangements.

5. Tourist tax and reallocation: additional revenue from tourism levies earmarked for education, infrastructure and housing.

Concise conclusion

The GOB vision is a political wake-up call, not a finished blueprint. The idea of making the Balearics more economically resilient is sound; but the proposed halving of tourist workload requires more: time, money, legal changes and above all social support. Shrinking without bringing people along creates losers instead of solutions. Those who offer a flexible roadmap, flanked by retraining, local production and smart land policy, have a chance to steer the island toward a more sustainable economy — slowly, loudly, but realistically.