Wildfire Balance 2025: Good Numbers — Dangerous Calm?

Wildfire Balance 2025: Good Numbers — Dangerous Calm?

Key question: Are the good numbers from 2025 enough to let us relax — or is the calm deceptive?

The raw figures are impressive: 82 reported wildfires in the Balearic Islands in 2025, affecting only 17 hectares. On Mallorca alone, 39 fires were recorded. For comparison: the ten-year average is 88 fires and 148 burned hectares per year. That reads like a success — and yet the statistics hide a number of open questions.

Critical analysis

Almost 96 percent of the fires were caused by human activity, only four percent by natural events such as lightning. This is central: if people are the main cause, then behavioral changes and organizational measures are effective — but only if they are implemented seriously. The Balearic government initially provided €1.5 million for measures such as firebreaks in winter. That is a start, but not automatically a long-term solution.

Another point: the small burned area in 2025 could also have been due to chance or favorable weather. Climate experts warn — and this is reflected in official admonitions — that climate change increases overall wildfire risk, a point underscored when smoke from mainland wildfires reached Palma. Fewer fires in one year does not mean the risk has decreased. On the contrary: low damage figures can reduce political attention, while long-term measures continue to require resources.

What is missing from the public discourse

The debate often revolves around annual totals and individual measures, but rarely about three central questions: Who owns the affected lands? Who manages them long-term? And how is the effectiveness of funding checked? Without answers, short-term programs risk fizzling out after a few years. Also underexposed is the role of livestock and extensive grazing as a preventive measure — in many municipalities on the island, sheep and goat flocks are a natural tool to reduce combustible material.

Everyday scene from the island

Imagine a frost-clear winter morning on a secondary road near Campos: a shepherd drives a small flock along the field tracks, a tractor scrapes at a freshly cut firebreak, and at a viewpoint a forester checks the boundary of the reserve. Such scenes are not idylls but prevention. Unfortunately they are not standard everywhere — often personnel, equipment or clear responsibility between municipalities and regional administration are missing, as shown by an evening fire by the Ma-15 that burned three hectares and led to evacuations.

Concrete solutions

1) Targeted allocation of funds and transparency: €1.5 million is good, but funds must be tied to measurable, multi-year projects: kilometers of firebreaks, hectares maintained, regular inspections.

2) Promotion of targeted livestock grazing: subsidies for grazing in critical edge zones reduce fuel and support the local economy. Mobile shepherd protection and insurance for shepherds could help.

3) Early warning systems and night shifts: invest in drones and thermal cameras for early detection plus better coordination of fire departments, forestry offices and volunteer brigades.

4) Prevention instead of punishment alone: public outreach, clear rules for barbecues and open fires, campaigns in tourist centers and with landlords — especially in the transition period before the high season. This is particularly relevant as authorities marked the official end of the wildfire season in Mallorca.

5) Long-term landscape plan: instead of isolated strips, we need a network of maintenance areas, corridors and rewilding projects that combine erosion control, biodiversity and fire protection.

Conclusion

The 2025 balance is encouraging — but it must not become a sedative for politics and society. That 96 percent of fires are caused by people is an opportunity: we can reduce risk if we act consistently, transparently and locally. Mallorca needs not just money for strips in winter but a connected concept that brings shepherds, municipalities, foresters and fire brigades closer together. Otherwise the good statistics remain a fleeting moment in a warming future.

Island perspective at the end: Good news is important — even more important is that we draw the right conclusions from it.